Financial Tech

Feb-18 Weekly Market Commentary from Guide Rock Capital – FT017

Weekly Market Commentary from Guide Rock Capital – February 18, 2013 Stocks delivered mixed performance last week. The Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ Indices moved lower while the Standard & Poor’s 500 and Russell 2000 Indices moved higher for the week. Stocks were helped by positive economic news in the United States, including modestly positive retail sales for January, improved consumer sentiment, and a decline in initial jobless claims. However, these positives were offset to some extent by concerns about weakness overseas. Germany reported that its economy contracted during the fourth quarter of 2012. It’s the country’s worst economic performance since 2009. Listen Mobile: Overall, the major stock indices remain in positive territory for the year. They’ve been buoyed, in part, by better than expected fourth quarter earnings. On January 1, 2013, analysts expected profitability of companies in the S&P 500 Index would increase by about percent year-to-year. As 2012 fourth quarter’s earnings season headed toward the finish line last week, that estimate had almost doubled to percent. About 70 percent of companies have exceeded analysts’ expectations so far. On average, over the long term, about 62 percent of companies beat expectations. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds continued to hover around 2 percent during the week. Reports of weaker than expected economic growth in Europe during the last quarter of 2012 may have increased demand for Treasuries. When demand increases, prices often go up and yields go down. Bond yields also have been affected by the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program. The Fed has been buying Treasury bonds in an effort to help support the economy. In general, these purchases are believed to be keeping bond yields lower than they might be otherwise. Quantitative easing will not continue indefinitely which may be the reason the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority issued a statement last week that said, “Many economists believe that interest rates are not likely to get much lower and will eventually rise. If that is true, then outstanding bonds, particularly those with a low interest rate and high duration may experience significant price drops as interest rates rise along the way.” Data as of 2/15/13 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) N/A Gold (per ounce) DJ-UBS Commodity Index DJ Equity All REIT TR Index Notes: S&P 500, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, , London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.  N/A means not applicable. CHILDREN ARE TARGETED FOR IDENTITY THEFT FAR MORE OFTEN than you might think. That’s right. A 2012 report from Carnegie Mellon CyLab found children are targeted for identity theft 35 times more frequently than adults. That’s because the unused social security numbers assigned to children for tax purposes are uniquely valuable to identity thieves. These numbers can be paired with any name and address and used for many years. Often the theft isn’t discovered until a child applies for a student loan or a job, or tries to buy a mobile phone or a car. The report is based on 42,000 identity protection scans of children, ages 18 and under, that were completed during 2009 and 2010. Researchers found social security numbers for more than 4,300 children – percent of those scanned – were being used by someone else (a stranger, a parent, or another family member) to: · Buy homes and automobiles · Establish credit card accounts · Secure employment and get driver’s licenses Source: Child Identity Theft, Richard Power, Carnegie Mellon CyLab The youngest victim was five months old. The victim of the largest fraud (about three-quarters of a million dollars) was a 16-year-old girl. The first step in protecting your child’s social security number is to check with credit bureaus and find out whether a file has been opened using your child’s social security number. In many cases, even if the number is being used, your child’s full identity has not been stolen. In addition to contacting credit bureaus, watch for warning signs your child’s social security number may be in play. These include receiving: · Pre-approved credit card offers in your child’s name · Notices from the IRS indicating your child didn’t pay income taxes · Calls from collection agencies asking for your child Source: Child Identity Theft, Richard Power, Carnegie Mellon CyLab; Federal Trade Commission Consumer Information, Child Identity Theft, August 2012 If you would like to learn more about how to protect your child from identity theft, visit the Federal Trade Commission’s web site at , and click on Privacy and Identity, Repairing Identity Theft, and then Child Identity Theft. Weekly Focus – Think About It “The greatest pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do.” —Walter Bagehot, British economist and journalist Best regards, Andrew Hunt CFP® President of Guide Rock Capital Management, Inc. 1001 Gallup Drive Omaha, NE 68102 Communication | WOO | Achiever | Ideation | Relator     Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will ask for their permission to be added. Securities offered through Shareholders Service Group, Member FINRA/SIPC. * This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer. * The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. * The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market. * Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. * The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998. * The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones. * Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods. * Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. * Past performance does not guarantee future results. * You cannot invest directly in an index. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. * To unsubscribe from the Guide Post please reply to this e-mail with    “Unsubscribe” in the subject line, or write us at
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Financial Tech

Feb-11 Weekly Market Commentary from Guide Rock Capital – FT016

The Markets Like a climber determined to reach a peak, stock markets continued to move higher last week. Signs of strength in and international trade data improved the outlook for economic growth at home and abroad. The trade deficit narrowed in December, a sign that the economy did better than expected during the fourth quarter of last year. In China, robust domestic demand pushed imports significantly higher while exports grew more than anticipated. In Europe, Germany’s 2012 surplus was its second highest in more than 60 years which is a sign of underlying strength in one of the Eurozone’s biggest economies. Listen Mobile: Positive economic news hurt gold futures which ended the week modestly lower. However, it made riskier assets, like stocks, attractive to investors, which helped push equity markets higher during the week (although trading volumes were low on Friday because of bad weather in the northeast). The NASDAQ closed at a 12-year high, the S&P 500 Index reached a five-year high, and the S&P 500 posted gains for a sixth consecutive week. The Treasury bond market gained ground during the week. However, at a symposium at the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Board Governor Jeremy Stein’s comments seemed to reinforce the idea that Fed officials are concerned that ongoing accommodative monetary policies could cause some sectors of the bond market to overheat. His comments reinforced the idea that the Fed is considering tightening its credit policies down the road. Data as of 1/25/13 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) N/A Gold (per ounce) DJ-UBS Commodity Index DJ Equity All REIT TR Index Notes: S&P 500, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, , London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.  N/A means not applicable. THERE IS A NEW TREND IN FUNERALS: PLAN YOUR OWN. Susan Boyle, the Scottish chanteuse who was discovered on Britain’s Got Talent back in 2009 wants to leave mourners at her funeral laughing. What is her plan? She wants to have ‘Nellie the Elephant’ played during the service. Whether you applaud her approach or find it appalling, there is a new trend in the funeral industry: preplanning, prepaying, and personalization. Here are a few of the reasons people are choosing to plan and pay for their funerals ahead of time: Control. When you plan the funeral, you have a pretty good idea about what will happen. You can decide whether there will be a viewing and how your life will be celebrated after the service. You can also create a file with personal information for your obituary, as well as any instructions you have for burial, cremation, or organ donation. Just make sure you leave it with a loved one so they know how to proceed. Negotiate. Grieving family members are rarely good negotiators. Planning ahead gives you a chance to negotiate and secure a guaranteed price on a prepaid plan offered by a funeral home. Make sure you find out answers to questions such as: What happens if prices increase? What happens if you move? What happens if you change your mind? Goodwill. If prepaid plans leave too many questions unanswered, you may choose to fund your funeral through a trust or an insurance policy. Regardless of the payment method, providing instructions with your wishes and funds to cover the expenses can relieve some of the anxiety and stress of a funeral. Personalize. There are many new and unusual options available for funerals and memorial services. Whether you opt for traditional burial, cremation, green burial, mummification, cryonics, a memorial space flight, a memorial reef, or having your ashes compressed into a gemstone, there is a business willing to help. Funeral preferences are changing. Alternatives to traditional funeral home services are becoming popular, especially among Baby Boomers. If you would like to learn more about the options available, visit the Funeral Consumers Alliance web site () and the National Funeral Directors Associations web site (). Weekly Focus – Think About It “Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.” Mahatma Gandhi, philosopher Best regards, Andrew Hunt CFP® President of Guide Rock Capital Management, Inc. 1001 Gallup Drive Omaha, NE 68102 Communication | WOO | Achiever | Ideation | Relator   Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will ask for their permission to be added. Securities offered through Shareholders Service Group, Member FINRA/SIPC. * This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer. * The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. * The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market. * Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. * The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998. * The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones. * Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods. * Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. * Past performance does not guarantee future results. * You cannot invest directly in an index. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. * To unsubscribe from the Guide Post please reply to this e-mail with    “Unsubscribe” in the subject line, or write us at
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Financial Tech

Jan-15 Weekly Market Commentary from Guide Rock Capital – FT013

The Markets Last week investors were turning to stocks. Was it the generally strong performance of stock market indices during 2012 or something else? Theories were abundant. Some speculated that the surge signaled: Renewed confidence in the American economy Relief that capital gains and dividend taxes remained constant for middle income Americans Faith in the ability of the American government to get things done Lack of attractive investment alternatives as the average yield on high-yield bonds fell below 6% for the first time ever Listen Mobile: There also was much discussion during the week about the contradictory messages coming from the Federal Reserve. The Evan’s Rule, which was named after the head of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, was established late in 2012. It ties interest rate guidance to employment and inflation targets rather than calendar dates; a change many had interpreted to mean that monetary policy would remain accommodative into 2014. Interest rates are just one tool the Fed has been using to encourage economic growth. It also has been engaging in quantitative easing (QE) which is purchasing Treasuries on the open market to inject capital into the economy and encourage growth. Last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting notes indicated there was discussion among Fed members about ending quantitative easing earlier than expected, possibly before 2014. So, which is it? Will policy remain accommodative or will it start to tighten? We may not know for sure for some time. The good news, according to Barron’s, is that tightening monetary policy would not be all bad news. “The end of quantitative easing would mean that the Fed sees sustainable economic growth in the – and globally.” Data as of 1/11/13 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks) DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) NA Gold (per ounce) DJ-UBS Commodity Index DJ Equity All REIT TR Index Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.  Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, , London Bullion Market Association.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.  N/A means not applicable. SAGE INVESTMENT ADVICE… Almost two decades ago, the CFA Institute published an article that included a letter from a father who was a financial professional to his daughter. His missive included some timeless and practical advice about investing. Among the thoughts he shared with his daughter were the following principles for investing: · A fool and his money are soon parted. Pay close attention to financial matters because investment capital is a perishable commodity when not managed properly.   · There is no free lunch. Risk and return are interrelated. Generally, the greater the risk, the greater the potential return and vice versa. · Know thyself. Be honest in assessing your risk tolerance because it’s easy to underestimate the stress of a high-risk portfolio when markets move south.   · Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversification helps determine potential rates of return and manage exposure to risk. Make sure you have a well-diversified and well-allocated portfolio.   · Take the long view. Make a plan and stay with it. Don’t let short-term market fluctuation or media-fueled frenzies cause you to panic. Investment decisions should result from a rational trade-off of risk and return. Unfortunately, those decisions often reflect fear and anxiety about current events. · Remember the value of common sense. Investing is not a competitive sport. It should be an effort to achieve a pre-determined financial goal within a specific risk-tolerance framework. No system works all of the time and you should not expect it to. Sound financial advice may prove particularly important during 2013. During the fourth quarter of 2012, markets were volatile as Congress argued fiscal cliff issues. The solution – The American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 – resolved matters related to taxation, but left spending issues to be hammered out in the future. As a result, we may see additional volatility during the first few months of this year. If you begin to experience fear and anxiety when listening to news reports or checking market performance, just review the principles above! Weekly Focus – Think About It If you want to be successful, it’s just this simple. Know what you are doing. Love what you are doing. And believe in what you are doing.  –Will Rogers, humorist and social commentator Best regards, Andrew Hunt CFP President of Guide Rock Capital Management, Inc. 1001 Gallup Drive Omaha, NE 68102 USA Communication | WOO | Achiever | Ideation | Relator       Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will ask for their permission to be added. Securities offered through Shareholders Service Group, Member FINRA/SIPC. * This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer. * The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. * The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices. * The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market. * Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. * The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998. * The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones. * Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods. * Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. * Past performance does not guarantee future results. * You cannot invest directly in an index. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. To subscribe to the Guide Post please e-mail with “Subscribe” in the subject line. Follow Jim on Twitter (@jcollison), and Andrew (@AndrewDHunt) Disclosure Music by: Welcome to the Regency Inntergalactic (Tom Fahy) / CC BY-SA
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