The Double Sided Coin of Employment Numbers – The Guide Rock Capital Market Commentary – FT047

After last week’s surprisingly strong employment report, it’s almost possible to picture Ben Bernanke slapping trail dust from his leg, ducking his head, and saying, “Just doin’ my job.”

After all, running the economy is as laden with complications and unexpected events as a cattle drive. Richard Graboyes, an economist who was once the Director of Education for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, wrote that driving cattle seems “arduous, but simple – walk some cattle from point A to point B. But, the endeavor is fraught with natural and human risks for both rancher and driver.”

Clearly, the head of the Fed and the head of a cattle drive face different challenges. According to The Federal Reserve System: Purposes and Functions publication:

“The Federal Reserve sets the nation’s monetary policy to promote the objectives of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The challenge for policymakers is that tensions among the goals can arise in the short run and that information about the economy becomes available only with a lag and may be imperfect.”

Last week, the employment numbers seemed to support the idea the economy is gaining steam. According to Forbes, employers added more than 200,000 jobs in October, which was far more than economists had anticipated. The government continued to employ fewer people (employees furloughed during the government shutdown were still counted as being employed). There were 12,000 fewer government jobs in October, and 94,000 fewer for the year. The biggest employment gains were in the hospitality, retail, technical services, manufacturing, and health care sectors.

It’s not time to whoop and holler, though. The New York Times reported the labor force participation rate fell to 62.8 percent, which is a 35-year low. More than 700,000 jobs disappeared during October which was the largest monthly drop since the end of 2009. A smaller labor force can make overall unemployment rate appear to be lower than it is. Let’s hope the labor force isn’t like a herd of cattle that moves too fast and arrives at market a lot skinnier and worth a lot less.

Notes: S&P 500, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

IF YOU WERE ASKED TO COMPARE TEACHERS’ SOCIAL STATUS TO THAT OF other professions, how would it compare? Are teachers like doctors? Librarians? Social workers? Nurses? Local government officials? Web designers? Lawyers? Policemen? Engineers? Accountants?

Education and training have a profound effect on economies and individuals. In the United States, people who have graduated from college tend to earn more than those who have graduated from high school. Earning an MBA, JD, or MD can translate into significantly higher earnings over a lifetime. Clearly, becoming educated has a significant economic value.

What value, then, do we place on those who provide education? How much respect do we have for the people who teach and train us? As it turns out, the answer varies widely from country to country. According to the Varkey GEMS Foundation’s Global Teacher Status Index survey, which surveyed 21 countries to determine the status of teachers, people in China, Greece, and Turkey have the highest level of respect for teachers and their social standing.

So, how does the teaching profession compare to other professions? In the Czech Republic, Egypt, Switzerland, and many other countries, survey respondents said teachers have the status of social workers. In Brazil, France, Turkey, and the United States, people think teachers are roughly on par with librarians. The Japanese think teachers have the same status as local government managers. More than one-third of Chinese participants said teachers had the same status as doctors. According to the report:

“The U.S. ranked in the middle of the Teacher Status Index with a score of 68.0. Notably, the ranking of primary school teachers is at the higher end of the table and above all the European countries. U.S. respondents scored consistently across the different variables in the study, demonstrating moderate to positive respect for their teachers.”

As you might expect, the more respect a country had for teachers, the more likely people in that country were to encourage their children to enter the profession. Parents in China, South Korea, Turkey, and Egypt were most likely to encourage kids to become teachers.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Education is the key to success in life, and teachers make a lasting impact in the lives of their students.” — Solomon Ortiz, Former U.S. Representative from Texas

Best regards,

ANDREW HUNT CFP® President of Guide Rock Capital Management, Inc. 402.938.6016 1001 Gallup Drive Omaha, NE 68102

Communication | Woo | Achiever | Ideation | Relator

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