The Double Sided Coin of Employment Numbers – The Guide Rock Capital Market Commentary – FT047

After last week’s surprisingly strong employment report, it’s almost possible to picture Ben Bernanke slapping trail dust from his leg, ducking his head, and saying, “Just doin’ my job.” After all, running the economy is as laden with complications and unexpected events as a cattle drive. Richard Graboyes, an economist who was once the Director… Continue reading

Contrarian Investing and the Direction of Interest Rates – The Guide Rock Capital Market Commentary – FT046

Contrarians probably are waiting for the other shoe – or, in this case, U.S. stock markets – to drop. If you’re not familiar with contrarian investing, the theory goes something like this: Consensus opinion is often wrong. When the majority of investors have a bullish outlook and believe stocks are going to move higher, the… Continue reading

Resilient Markets in the Face of Chilling Danger – The Guide Rock Capital Market Commentary – FT045

Curse of Chucky, Scream 2, Final Destination 5, Freddy vs. Jason… You know Halloween is nearly upon us when you can’t surf channels without exposing yourself to or relishing in a multitude of horror flick sequels. Propagating alarming situations seems to be all the rage in Washington, too. Last week, a last-minute deal raised America’s… Continue reading

US Government Shutdown a Halloween Trick or Treat – The Guide Rock Capital Market Commentary – FT044

Do world stock markets believe Congress is just offering up some Halloween excitement? Last week, they responded to the government shutdown in the United States and the possibility the U.S. might default on its debt for the first time ever with the bravado of teenagers standing in line for a haunted house. Markets around the… Continue reading

Déjà vu with a US Government Shutdown – The Guide Rock Capital Market Commentary – FT043

“It’s déjà vu all over again,” Yogi Berra reportedly said as he watched Yankee teammates Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris smack back-to-back home runs for the umpteenth time. Americans are experiencing déjà vu all over again, too. Sure, the prospect of another fiscal showdown doesn’t electrify a crowd like a couple of major league home… Continue reading

The Fed: lather-rinse-repeat – Commentary on Quantitative Easing – The Guide Rock Capital Market Commentary – FT042

We’re going to do it…We’re going to do it…We’re not going to do it…Yet. Last week, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee gave stock markets a gift that, on a scale of thrills, might have been on par with Marilyn Monroe singing happy birthday to JFK. On Wednesday, the FOMC announced (without a trace of… Continue reading